Beth and Ryan Waller, Guelph real estate agents say there are three reasons why your patience could pay off as a buyer in the next eight weeks.

This post was originally made in Jan 2021. However, it is now being updated again in Jan 2022. The Guelph real estate market is remarkably similar to 2021 and probably more imbalanced than it was at the same time last year. We answer the question: Should I buy a house now?

Wait, Guelph real estate agents telling buyers not to buy in Guelph?

You heard it here first and the reason is pretty simple. Supply and demand.

From June to September 2021, there were an average of 35 sales per week. From November into early December, this number dropped to 25 sales per week as there was less availlable on the market. But, here we are in January 2022 and there are now only twelve available houses for sale in Guelph. TWELVE!

In everyday terms: You have a favourite wine and it’s been sold out for months. One afternoon you notice on the LCBO app that they have a case available at your local store! You rush to get it and find that someone has already beaten you to it. You love that wine so much and it’s be so hard to get that you’d probably pay a premium, right? This is happening in real estate right now, but on a much larger scale.

If you’re a buyer right now, you already know this information because you’re feeling the pain.

You’re going through the dance of finding houses on realtor.ca. You’re going to houses, putting in offers based on what you can afford (versus any comparables) and hope that you have a chance. Stark difference between this and a post we made in 2018 about housing prices in Guelph being fake news!

Our lovely buyer clients were one of 29 offers on a house this week. Despite offering more than $160,000 OVER the asking price and offering to pay cash- as in, from their bank account with no mortgage required, still didn’t get the house. That’s what we’re dealing with.

Any new inventory is quickly eaten up, most sellers are holding offers in an attempt to get multiple offers. And, they’re getting them alright. Sellers are in full control of this market. There is no type of home that is easier to get that others. In an article we wrote for GuelphToday, it doesn’t appear it’s going to get easier in the first eight weeks of 2022. But 3 weeks from today could be a whole different story.

As a buyer, this gets old. You can only be involved in this emotional roller coaster so many times before you decide that you don’t want to do it anymore.

But, we believe buyers are going to get a bit of relief in the coming eight weeks and here are 3 reasons why:

Should I buy a house now? Not when sellers are seeking new highs

Your neighbours just sold their house for a record amount. In fact, it’s 10% more than you thought your house was worth which suddenly got your wheels turning. Maybe now is the time to make a change and move to the country. You didn’t plan to sell, but you’re noticing the prices on realtor.ca seem to be rising. Maybe now is the time to test the market at the new highs to try and cash in. So you call up your Guelph real estate agent to discuss.

Sound familiar?

This is increasingly frustrating for first time buyers and to answer the question “should I buy a house now”: no. As buyers attempt to navigate a crazy market, they have some sort of budget restraint based on what their banks tell them. At least with buyers who already own a home, they may be out of control on buying, but get to take back full control when they sell.

Millennials are getting creative in their financing options such as pooling funds together, getting parents to co-sign and even taking early inheritance.

We’re finding more sellers who have flexibility in their timelines deciding that they want to test the market. Why not? You’ve always been told to sell at the high, right? We anticipate these sellers will fuel some of the new listings in February and March.

Omicron is keeping Guelph sellers off the market

In an eerily similar to 2021, the Ontario Stay at Home order kept people on the sidelines. With the contagious nature of Omicron, it’s keeping sellers on the sidelines. If you’re a seller and were planning to list your house for sale in December 2021, you probably didn’t do it (and as parents of three kids, we understand). In fact, you’re likely going to wait until some relief shows up on Omicron.

In fact, this intimate at home time may change the way sellers use their house. Some parents may realize that they really do need more space- now that they’re using every. Single. Inch of it for kids desk space and quiet. Greater Toronto area buyers in Guelph have started to convert bedrooms to home offices.

So back to the question: Should I buy a house now?

It happens every single year (Ok, so maybe not 2020): the spring real estate market. It’s the hottest time of the year for real estate listings. Every spring, sellers come out of the winter slumber, call up their Guelph real estate agent and decide they want to move before summer starts. Maybe a house with a pool, or a house with a bigger yard.

If buyers who are losing these days on homes can hold out for another 8-12 weeks, it could be worth it financially. The real estate market, like every other market works on supply and demand. That is- more supply brings prices down, while less supply, like we’ve been experiencing will increase prices. And supply cannot get much lower than 12 houses.

To be clear, we’re not expecting a real estate correction. There is no short term crash in our mind. However, we do believe that buyers could get a break for their patience. This would be about 2-4% on the average price of a home in Guelph in return for their patience.

Have questions on the Guelph real estate market? Get in touch! We’d be happy to help! Beth and Ryan Waller are Guelph real estate agents who run a small but mighty team.