Guelph Realtors Beth and Ryan Waller talk about rising Guelph Real Estate listings. From 25 houses in early January to 296 in late May, a 10x increase in inventory has impacted the market pricing. Only 51% of homes sold over the asking last week, the lowest % of 2022.

In December 2021, Beth and I made our best guess predictions on where the Guelph real estate was headed for 2022. The article focused solely on residential Guelph real estate listings.

The article had the following predictions:

Guelph real estate listings: looking back on predictions

  • January to March will still see a very aggressive market (+25%)
  • April- August will have modest gains with a slower July and August (+10%)
  • September to December will see slight declines vs 2021 (-1%)
  • This weighted average should put Guelph in the +13% range for full year 2022.

In actuality, the Guelph market increased in $ volume by 16% from January to March. We were off slightly there! The main reason for the double digit increase in dollar sales is that there were 13% less houses sold in Q1 2021 vs Q1 2022. Less supply equates to greater demand and higher prices.

Guelph real estate listings are not selling nearly as quickly

But where we may see some unexpected challenges is in the April – August period. Remember, our predictions are on dollar volume, not average price or number of units. This means the sale prices of all sold Guelph real estate listings added together.

In July 2021, there was a significant drop off in sales as COVID restrictions were lifted. Buyers simply (and literally) left town to enjoy summer and didn’t think about real estate. If you were a buyer during that time, you probably got a short term deal.

In 2022, we predict there are going to be less Guelph real estate listings will sell between April- August. However, the average price of those homes to be higher. This means we could actually get to the +10% we anticipate. But, only time will tell!

Where are the buyers?

Rising interest rates, day to day inflation impact, daily news media and other factors are causing buyers to stay on the sidelines. At the same time, sellers continue to put houses on the market possibly for the same reasons.

The result is a softening of prices, quickly.

In fact, we’ve seen more cancellations and re-lists in the past few weeks than sales. A cancellation happens when a seller doesn’t get the price they want. In order to make the listing appear fresh again, they simply re-list it again at a new price. This gives the illusion that it’s actually a new listing. However, those that browse Guelph real estate listings frequently recognize this.

Is Guelph real estate going to crash?

“Crash” is an extreme word. However a key indication that values are changing is the gap in home appraisal values. Those who purchased Guelph real estate in the peak of the January/ February market are now closing in May and home values are not the same as they once were, leaving many buyers with additional financial challenges.

If you’re a first time buyer and considering buying a house in this market, it may be a great time. Although interest rates have risen, housing prices have fallen. The combination of both of these may mean that you can get a house for the same price as you would have last summer. At that time, rates were lower but prices were higher.

With the price of rentals in Guelph increasing at a rapid pace, buyers who are currently renting may find that for a few hundred $ more per month, they could own a home.

Need Guelph real estate advice?

Need the advice of a Guelph realtor? Give Beth and Ryan Waller’s real estate team a call for no obligation discussion. Beth and Ryan are Sales Representatives with Home Group Realty in Guelph.