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Guelph real estate sales for December 1-15 2025
We’re now into the slowest month of the year and starting to see the slowdown. We know the volume will be low, but we’re more interested in what buyers and sellers are doing- their behaviour. And, by behaviour we’re looking for lower sale prices, cancelled listings and more. This gives us an idea of what buyers and sellers are thinking as the year ends. Are buyers negotiating more? Are sellers just giving up and cancelling?
But before that, let’s re-cap what we’ve been dealing with in Guelph in 2025. Here’s how many units sold by month so far this year vs 2024:
March: unit sales (the number of houses sold) were -17% vs 2024
April unit sales were -11% vs 2024
May unit sales were -7% vs 2024
June unit sales were -3% vs 2024
July unit sales were +11% vs 2024
August 2025 unit sales were -7% vs 2024
Sept 2025 unit sales flat vs 2024
Oct 2025: unit sales +6% vs 2024
November 2025: unit sales -22% vs 2024
December 1-15 2025: unit sales trending to -25% vs 2024
Full year: Assuming December comes in at 74 sales as per trend, full year 2025 will be -6.4% vs 2024
What type of market is the Guelph real estate market in?
Guelph is currently in a weak balanced market, trending to a buyers market. The type of market we are in is calculated on the trending months of inventory (MOI)
Types of markets
Less than 2 MOI: sellers market. This means that prices will likely RISE because there is more demand (buyers buying) than supply (sellers selling)
2- 6 MOI: balanced market. This means there is enough inventory to satisfy needs of buyers and sellers and regular/ standard negotiations happen
6+ MOI: buyers market. This means there is more supply (houses for sale) than the demand for them (buyers to buy them). In this case, prices typically DECLINE because buyers can negotiate more.
How do you calculate MOI?
As of December 16, there are:
Total of 426 available homes in Guelph (was 452 in late Nov), of which:
Condos/ towns/ stacked towns/ apartment condos: 233 (was 238 in late Nov)
Detached/ semi detached: 193 (was 215 in late Nov)
This is a net decrease of 26 properties in the Guelph market since Nov 30. At the end of November, we anticipated this would fall to roughly 400 by Dec 31. For context, this is about an 800% increase in available inventory from Jan 2022.
At this point in the year, many sellers decide it’s too late to list, or, that they don’t want to allow showings during the holidays. So, naturally volume drops off. The big concern here is that if many people do this (which is feels like it may be the case), there is going to be a glut of inventory in the spring.
It’s also worth noting that the # of condo listing terminations in the past few weeks is less than the detached segment. This could be that these sellers are more motivated to sell and can keep their properties on the market longer.
Based on the last 3 months sales trend of 139 houses selling per month, Guelph would have 3.1 months of inventory (426 houses for sale/ 139 sales per month) before we completely sell out of houses. Based on months of inventory (MOI) we are in a buyers market.
December 2025 vs prior December months
On average in Guelph in 2025, there has been an average of 4.7 sales per day. The months of March-June generally are higher than 5, while all other months are lower. Here are previous December sales numbers:
Dec 2020: 4.1
Dec 2021: 3.5
Dec 2022: 2.4
Dec 2023: 2.1
Dec 2024: 3.2
Dec 2025: 2.5 (trending)
These low unit sales numbers for December are expected, and December 2025 really shows no surprises. It would be close to the average of the previous 3 years at 2.5
What sold in the Guelph real estate market Dec 1-15 2025?
- 11 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
- 26 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or “freehold”)
Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:
Of the 11 units that sold:
$390,000 was the low price (Kingsbury Sq condo)
$782,000 was the high price (72 York townhome)
Overall average was just over $516,000- a significant drop from prior months where we averaged close to/ over $600,000. We’ve been talking about this for months- and anticipate the average price of a condo in Guelph is going even lower. Keep in mind that the sample size is so small, it may not be a true reflection of reality. We’ll be watching.
Total homes sold at an average of 97.5% of the last posted asking. This is on par with prior months.
2 of the 11 units sold over asking (18%)
0 sold at the asking (0%)
9 sold under the asking (82%)
A glut in supply of the condo/ townhouse segment
The above sales are consistent with our predictions for this segment, in particular the stacked townhouse segment that is strugging with oversupply. The supply has been increasing and should increase over the next 6-8 months.
In July, we noted 237 units for sale with an average of 1.6 selling per day. Now, in mid December despite cancellations we actually have just a net decrease of 4 listings from July and are selling less that 1 per day.
We recently posted a YouTube short on our channel (give us a subscribe!) where Ryan indicated that 44% of available condo listings were vacant- as in, no one lives there but someone is paying the mortgage, condo fees, utilities and taxes. This should be an indication of oversupply and looming price decreases as sellers will finally say “enough is enough” and decide to take what the market is offering.
Detached/ semi detached freehold
Of the 26 units that sold:
$500,000 was the low price (The Ward)
$1,370,000 was the high price (Kortright East)
Overall average was $797,000 (now 6 weeks under $800K- this is a large decline vs summer)
Total homes sold at an average of 98% of the last listed asking price- no change
4 of the 26 sold over asking (15%)
1 sold at the asking (4%)
21 sold under the asking (81%)
Of the 4 homes that sold over the asking, in all cases these were homes intentionally priced below market value and not an indication of market demand. This generated multiple offers and although the home technically sold “over asking”, it eventually just sold at market value. This is just a marketing strategy that in our opinion is risky in todays environment.
We have noticed a jump in cancelled listings in this segment (10%) as sellers decide that they will wait until the spring to sell. In years past, this often meant an increase in sales price as well. However, as per our 2026 Guelph real estate predictions, this could also be a risky move.
Higher end segment flattening out
A new trend that we noticed in June of homes over $1M gaining steam appears to be starting to flatten. Homes in this price range historically represent 15-20% of total sales. For much of the spring and summer, this number was above or close to the high end of the range (20%). However, into fall it appears this number is starting to soften and although we were still within the range for October (17%), November was lower than we’ve seen in a long time (7%) and December is trending at 11%. If we get to 3 consecutive months under 15%, we’d say it’s a new trend downwards.
How is Guelph real estate performing overall in 2025?
Overall, here are the main headlines for year to date to Nov 30 2025 versus same period 2024:
Sale volume (total $ of all the homes sold): -6.0% vs 2024
Total units sold (# of actual houses sold): -5.3% vs 2024
Total average price: -0.9% vs 2024
What are these numbers telling us?
With sales volume and total units down more than 5% vs 2024, it means that there is general hesitation in the market. Less homes are selling (90 less in 2025 vs 2024) and they are selling for slightly less as well. This is consistent with a changing real estate landscape and although it may be in decline vs 2024, it’s more in line with sales volumes prior to 2020.
Market performance to Sept 30 by neighbourhood
It’s worth taking a look at how each neighbourhood performs, both on a unit (# of houses sold) and average price (average of all the homes sold) basis. We update this quarterly and will update again in early 2026. The below is the period of Jan 1- Sept 30, 2025
# of houses sold in Guelph in 2025:
In 2025, there has been 68 less units sold than the same period in 2024 (-5%). But some neighbourhoods have performed better than others. Lets look closer:
Average price of houses sold in Guelph in 2025:
In 2025, the average price overall is almost identical to 2024 year to date. However, it’s worth looking a little deeper as there have been some big shifts:
Have questions on the Guelph real estate market?
As always, you can get in touch with Beth and Ryan Waller to book an appointment, have a chat or get a valuation of your home.