Ryan Waller talks about how the GTA real estate market is changing

GTA buyers are now viewing Guelph as the cheapest part of the GTA. That’s what Beth and Ryan Waller, Real Estate Agents with Home Group Realty in Guelph are saying.

Beth and I are Guelph children of the 80’s. “I remember when we considered the Pergola to be out of town and when Willow West Mall was a hot ticket” says Ryan. 

Beth remembers her parents moving to a new build on Woodland Glen Dr in the mid 80 ’s. There wasn’t much development at all in the area. “The YMCA didn’t even arrive until a decade later” says Beth.

At that time, the Greater Toronto area really only spread as far west as Mississauga. After taking the 401 East from Guelph, there wasn’t much before Mississauga. Urban sprawl of Milton hadn’t happened yet.

Lifelong Guelphites remember a city of just over 80,000 people in 1990. Guelph is now a much larger city of about 140,000 today. Development has exploded south of Stone Rd and now even crosses over Clair Rd.

We’ve heard many Realtors refer to Guelph as “the cheapest part of GTA real estate”.

GTA real estate pricing hits Guelph

In 2020, Guelph saw a large spike in the number of homes selling over $1 million. This ultimately landed at 4% by year end.  In late 2020 we had predicted that 11% of Guelph homes would sell at $1 million or more in 2021. As of the end of October, it’s at 13%. We anticipate this number to get to 17% in 2022.

The majority of the increases in higher sale prices come from areas that are more highway commuter friendly- Pineridge/ Westminster and the Kortrights (East, West, Hills). These areas went from 40 houses selling over $1 million in 2020 to an incredible total of 128 so far this year.

Condos for example are relatively new to Guelph. It’s only been in the past 10 years that we’ve seen a large increase in development. Condos now represent 36% of total unit sales in Guelph for 2021, up from 33% in 2020. This number is likely going to continue to rise as more condo developments complete in the coming years.

Still a mountain of buyers to overcome

It’s still the majority to see multiple offers on houses. Beth and I always say that if there are 8 offers on a house, there are going to be 7 people who didn’t get a house that night. And now they’re looking for the next one. Until we’re over that mountain of buyers, prices will rise.

Beth and I have been writing for years about the impact that buyers who are pushing west from GTA real estate have had on Guelph real estate. With COVID, this amplified. In fact, they estimate that up to 70% of buyers in recent months are from the GTA based on showings being requested by GTA real estate agents.

It’s impossible to know the exact number, as many GTA buyers are using Guelph real estate agents. But we’re seeing a huge influx of buyers on our listings from Brampton, Mississauga, Toronto and even Milton.

Supply still remains the issue

Guelph would be able to handle the demand we’re getting if we had enough supply- that is, houses to sell. Until then, we’ll see rising prices. 

As of last Friday, there were only 75 single family residential homes in Guelph. For context, there were 194 single family residential sales in all of Guelph. At that rate, Guelph could be completely wiped out of homes for sale in 12 days.

The scary part to this is that with the winter months coming, we generally see a decline of people putting their houses on the market. If we still have the buyers that we have now, but even less inventory, it will get even more competitive out there than it is now.

For more information on how Beth and I can help you in your real estate journey, they can be reached here!

Source: GDAR single family residential homes, 2020-21.