Guelph housing market outlook · October 2026
2027 Guelph Real Estate Predictions: Will Home Prices Finally Recover?
Will Guelph home prices rise in 2027? Will buyers return? Here are our three predictions for the year ahead — plus one stock-market wildcard.
Our 2027 Guelph real estate predictions are here! Every fall, we look at the numbers, consider what economists are saying and make a few predictions about the Guelph housing market. Some years we’re pretty close. Other years, well, that’s why they’re called predictions.
After years of changing interest rates, economic uncertainty and a housing market that hasn’t behaved quite the way many expected, we think 2027 could be a year of stabilization and gradual recovery rather than another dramatic boom.
Before we look ahead
What happened in the Guelph real estate market in 2026?
Through September 2026, Guelph recorded fewer sales and lower average prices than in the same period of 2025. But the slowdown wasn’t uniform across property types.
Homes sold
Down 9.7% year over year
Average price
Down 2.9% year over year
Sales volume
Down 12.3% year over year
Source: REdatum, Municipality of Guelph, January 1–September 30, 2025 and 2026.
Detached homes have generally held up better than condos and townhouses. Following a relatively quiet spring, activity improved in parts of the summer and into September. See our latest Guelph market update for ongoing monthly reporting.
Three predictions
Our 2027 Guelph real estate predictions at a glance
Prediction 1
Average home-price growth
Prediction 2
More homes sold
Prediction 3
Condo and townhouse sales grow faster than detached sales
Prediction #1
Guelph home prices finally stabilize — up 0% to 3%
Our call: modest price growth, not another housing boom.
Let’s start with the question we’re asked most often: “Do you think Guelph house prices are going up next year?”
Our prediction is yes, but only slightly. We anticipate the average Guelph selling price will finish 2027 between unchanged and 3% higher than the full-year 2026 average. That is our price outlook within these 2027 Guelph real estate predictions.
Buyers have more choice than they did at the 2022 peak. We don’t expect another pandemic-style price surge — and a calmer market might be exactly what Guelph needs. TD Economics’ provincial outlook offers additional context on Ontario’s housing market, though our forecast is specific to Guelph.
Average price doesn’t mean every home appreciates
When more expensive detached homes sell, the citywide average can rise even if individual values are relatively flat. Likewise, a greater share of entry-level condo sales can pull the average down. This matters when comparing homes across Guelph neighbourhoods. Our recently sold Guelph homes page offers additional local sale-price context.
Prediction #2
Guelph home sales rise 5%–10% — even without much lower mortgage rates
More moves in 2027 — even if borrowing costs don’t drop much.
We’re more optimistic about transaction activity than prices. After a slower 2026, we think more buyers will decide it’s time to move.
What about mortgage rates in 2027?
Mortgage rates absolutely matter, but we wouldn’t make a purchase decision assuming they will fall dramatically. Variable mortgage rates are more directly influenced by the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, while fixed mortgage rates are heavily influenced by bond yields.
Economic forecasts differ, and the direction of mortgage rates remains uncertain. Rather than waiting for a perfect rate, we expect more buyers to focus on finding the right home at a manageable monthly cost.
Buyers may finally stop waiting
Families grow, jobs change and people downsize, regardless of market conditions. We expect more buyers to move in 2027 — but they’ll remain selective. Properly priced homes should fare better than overpriced listings. If you are planning to sell, our monthly Guelph market report can help you follow changing conditions.
Prediction #3
Condos and townhouses make a comeback in Guelph
We expect sales to recover before prices do.
This might be our favourite prediction. Guelph condos and townhouses have faced greater price pressure than detached homes, potentially creating new opportunities for first-time buyers and downsizers.
In September 2026, condo and townhouse sales were approximately 35% higher than in September 2025, even as their average selling prices remained lower. One month isn’t a trend, but buyers may be responding to improved affordability.
First-time buyers could lead the recovery
A condo or townhouse may offer a more manageable purchase price than a detached home. Buyers still need to account for mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, condo fees and maintenance when comparing monthly costs.
Investors might also take another look if prices stabilize and rental income begins to make financial sense. Buyers can compare available properties through our Guelph homes for sale search. More transactions, however, don’t necessarily mean an immediate rebound in prices.
Our wildcard
Could investors start looking at real estate instead of the stock market?
Here’s our more speculative prediction. If stock-market volatility increases while Guelph property prices stabilize, some investors might reconsider residential real estate.
We’re not predicting a stock-market crash, and a market correction doesn’t automatically benefit housing. Economic uncertainty can hurt both markets. Residential real estate also involves financing costs, property taxes, maintenance and potentially difficult selling conditions.
Our wildcard is simply that investment properties in Guelph may start looking more attractive again, especially when rental income and ownership costs make sense.
At a glance
Our three 2027 predictions, summarized
| Category | 2027 prediction |
|---|---|
| Average Guelph selling price | Up 0%–3% |
| Number of homes sold | Up 5%–10% |
| Condo and townhouse sales | Grow faster than detached-home sales |
| Wildcard | Renewed interest from property investors |
We’ll revisit these predictions at the end of 2027. And if the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that the real estate market can surprise everyone!
What does this mean if you’re buying or selling in Guelph?
For sellers, pricing based on recent comparable sales and current competition will remain essential. For buyers, a more stable market could provide more time to evaluate properties and negotiate. For first-time buyers, the condo and townhouse segment may deserve a closer look.
Explore recently sold homes in Guelph, browse our neighbourhood guides, or search current Guelph listings.
Local Guelph real estate insight
Have questions about your next move?
We’re Beth & Ryan Waller, Guelph REALTORS® with Keller Williams Home Group Realty. We share regular market updates, local neighbourhood information and practical advice for Guelph buyers and sellers.
Get in touch with Beth & RyanPublished October 2026. These forecasts are our opinions based on available local market data and economic context, not guarantees of future prices or sales.