Author: Ryan Waller, Guelph REALTOR®
Note: this is a bi-weekly post that updates on the sales within the Guelph real estate market which you can bookmark. You can find a video version on our YouTube Channel here or listen to our Podcast version on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. If you like this information, give us a subscribe!
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Guelph real estate sale summary for Feb 1-15 2026
Interesting. Probably how we’d explain the Guelph real estate sales for January. For those interested in how the month went, you can find Ryan’s summary on our YouTube channel. Some “interesting” that was good, some that was bad depending on whether you’re buying or selling in Guelph.
So, we would expect a little more interesting to continue into February, as it’s only slightly better than January. As the seasonality goes, as we move further into the year the sales slowly creep up and tend to hit their peak in May or June before the slow creep back down into December that starts in July.
Does this February look like it will be slightly better than January for sales (we would hope so..)?
Let’s start off with a re-cap the number of homes on average that have sold per day in prior Februarys in Guelph real estate in order to get a baseline:
2020: 7.3
2021: 8.8
2022: 8.8
2023: 4.9
2024: 5.1
2025: 4.3
2026 (trending to): 3.7
I feel like this is a repeat of our mid January blog where I was re-assuring readers that they were reading it correctly and it wasn’t actually a typo- yes, thats 3.7 sales per day. That’s the lowest February we’ve seen in YEARS. Mind you, it’s only the first half, but being a 28 day month we’re running out of runway.
If these low volumes hold, it’s the 2nd consecutive month of multi-year low volumes. How long will this continue and why is it happening? One theory is the extremely cold and long winter just has buyers sidelined, but personally we think that’s only one of about 5 factors. We’ll get into a few of them here, but be sure to watch Ryan’s video or podcast for more detail.
What was the average price of a house in Guelph in February 2026?
The overall average price of a house in Guelph so far in February 2026 was $715,000. This consists of an average price of $538,700 for condos/ townhouses (18 sales) and $799,800 in detached homes (38 sales). This is a drop in both segments and as a result, a drop in the overall average price vs January.
Is Guelph real estate inventory rising or falling overall?
Inventory was rising steadily into December, then started to decline which is typical. What we expected to happen is that much of the cancellations would return in January- but that didn’t happen.
Now in February, inventory still hasn’t recovered from the cancellations in December. Let’s review:
Dec 1, 2025: 437 houses for sale
Dec 31, 2025: 347 houses for sale
Jan 15, 2026: 376 houses for sale (175 detached and 201 condo)
Jan 31, 2026: 381 houses for sale (182 detached and 199 condo)
Feb 15, 2026: 403 houses for sale (180 detached and 223 condo)
Let’s look at this for a second: in a 4 week period (Jan 15- Feb 15), the number of detached houses available has had a net increase of 5 (yes, only 5!) while condo listings have increased by 10 or 22 units.
And so this is our first clue: buyers aren’t buying because they have seen their options and are still waiting for something they want to buy. Until then, they are inactive.
Let’s look at what sold:
What sold in the Guelph real estate market January 2026?
- 18 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
- 38 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or “freehold”)
Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:
Of the 18 units that sold:
$312,000 was the low price (Onward Willow condo)
$830,000 was the high price (downtown Guelph condo)
As mentioned, the overall average was just over $538,000- an decline from what we have been seeing in but still within the $500- $600,000 mark. As we see with rising inventory, we anticipate the average price of a condo in Guelph will go lower.
Total homes sold at an average of 97.8% of the last posted asking. This is on par with prior months.
1 of the 18 units sold over asking (6%)
1 of the 18 sold at the asking (6%)
16 sold under the asking (88%)
A glut in supply of the condo/ townhouse segment
We continue to keep a close eye on this segment, in particular with the race to the exits of the condo market in Toronto. Guelph loosely follows Toronto trends and the market there is deader than dead.
In July, we noted 237 units for sale with an average of 1.6 selling per day. Now, in February despite significant cancellations we actually have 223 listings and are trending to 1.2 per day (January was 0.9/day). 1.2 is actually much better than we’ve seen in prior months which have all been below 1/day.
Additionally, we watch for vacant listings in this segment to get an idea of what owners are thinking. We currently have 42% of available condo listings vacant- as in, no one lives there but someone is paying the mortgage, condo fees, utilities and taxes. The thinking is that the carrying costs (monthly costs) are less than what they can sell for in the future vs now.
An example:
Monthly costs are $2000 and if they just paid this out of pocket for a full year ($24,000), it’s still less than what they think they could sell for in the future vs now. This would justify them not capitulating on price at the moment and holding firm, even if the listing looks stale and they are not getting showings.
With all the expenses of selling and the average price of a condo in Guelph now at $538,000, owners would have to see property values increase about 10% for this math to work- personally, I can’t see this happening. Until these owners accept the current market or rent the property, these properties will sit vacant and collect dust.
Detached/ semi detached freehold
Of the 38 units that sold:
$345,000 was the low price (this was a vacant lot in the Ward)
$1,335,000 was the high price (Grange Rd/ East Guelph)
As mentioned earlier, the overall average was $799,000 (a decline vs prior months)
Total homes sold at an average of 98.0% of the last listed asking price- no change
8 of the 38 sold over asking (21%)
5 sold at the asking (13%)
25 sold under the asking (66%)
We’re starting to see a bit of impatience here, as there is very little in the detached segment coming to market. Of the 13 listings (34%) that sold at/ above the asking, 8 were listed and sold within February. Meaning, buyers are out there and acting quickly when something new hits the market that is within the neighbourhood and priced at market value.
$1M plus segment
We watch this segment for an indication on trends. Historically, we see 15-20% of sales in the $1M+ price segment, but in the last few months this segment has been struggling. October ended at 17%, November at 7% and December 13%. January was back in the range at 16%.
So far in Feb we’re at 11% with sales in all parts of Guelph- east, west, south and downtown.
What type of market is the Guelph real estate market in?
Guelph is currently in a balanced market. The type of market we are in, is calculated on the trending months of inventory (MOI).
With 403 houses on the market and the last 3 months avg sales (93/mth), we have 4.3 months of inventory (MOI). This puts us right in the middle of a buyers market- meaning it is an ideal market for negotiations and the “regular trading” of real estate.
Types of markets
Less than 2 MOI: sellers market. This means that prices will likely RISE because there is more demand (buyers buying) than supply (sellers selling)
2- 6 MOI: balanced market. This means there is enough inventory to satisfy needs of buyers and sellers and regular/ standard negotiations happen
6+ MOI: buyers market. This means there is more supply (houses for sale) than the demand for them (buyers to buy them). In this case, prices typically DECLINE because buyers can negotiate more.
In summary here: buyers are starting to outnumber sellers and MOI is increasing. We would anticipate that in the next 8 weeks we will increase to 5 to 6 months inventory. This is based on current sales trends and increasing inventory with a spring market. Rising inventory = lower prices.
Year to date performance (Jan 1- 31 2026 vs the same period 2025)
We only update this monthly, so we only have one month of finalized data (January). Here is how the real estate market stack up this year vs last:
Number of houses sold: -25% (73 in 2026 vs 97 in 2025)
$ volume sold: -28% ($54M in 2026 vs $76M in 2025)
Average price: -4.5% ($744K in 2026 vs $779K in 2025)
Have questions on the Guelph real estate market?
As always, you can get in touch with Beth and Ryan Waller anytime! Visit their website to book an appointment, have a chat or get a valuation of your home.