Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
Note: this is a bi-weekly post that updates on the sales within the Guelph real estate market which you can bookmark. You can find a video version on our YouTube Channel here or listen to our Podcast version on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. If you like this information, give us a subscribe!
Commentary on the Guelph real estate market, first half 2026
We have just completed the first half of 2026 in Guelph real estate sales! Did it go the way we expected?
Well, sort of?
Surprising: 2026 has trailed 2025 in # of houses sold in every month so far this year, which was unexpected. By this point, we expected some of the spring sales to outpace 2025. It’s just not happening. But why?
As inventory (# of available houses) rises, buyers have decided they’re just going to sit on the sidelines. Why? Because, why not? Most houses aren’t selling quickly and it pays to be patient- as in, declining prices. Sellers are hanging onto their price expections from 1-4 years ago which are not happening and in many cases, reluctantly selling for what the market is offering today.
This standoff between buyers and sellers creates a gap in transactions. Personally, we’ve had 4 situations of this alone in 2026, resulting in 8 transactions that didn’t happen because either a buyer or seller couldn’t get the price they wanted- so no one did anything and walked away for the foreseeable future.
Not so surprising: On the other hand, sellers are experiencing something not seen in years: declining prices. It’s a hard pill to swallow, knowing that you’re not really in control of what your house is worth like you once were. And, for many years if you couldn’t sell in the fall you’re likely going to be able to sell for the same or more the following spring anyways- except 2026.
Very early in 2026, we called clients who we knew were planning to sell this spring. The message was simple: we expect a lot of inventory to hit the market, but it hasn’t shown up yet. You may want to get on the market before the avalanche. Those who did probably realized the best sale price they’ll get in 2026.Because, good golly the inventory arrived, to levels we haven’t seen in many many years- and it’s still coming.
Here’s the reality: there is no secret formula in an open market like real estate. It’s as simple as supply and demand:
rising inventory = lower prices
declining inventory= rising prices
So, if you’re a seller trying to test the market “and see what happens” with a higher price than your neighbour- you’ll probably see pretty quick by the lack of showings as buyers ignore you. If you’re a buyer, your lowball offer to “see how desperate the seller is” is likely to also be ignored.
Guelph real estate market: June 2026
Let’s start off with a re-cap of the number of homes on average that have sold per day since 2020 in June, including final 2026 numbers in Guelph real estate:
Sales per day is a metric we can pull on any day of the month to see how the month is trending. If it starts really high at the start of the month and then dies, it’s a real time picture of a slowing month.
What was the average price of a house in Guelph in June 2026?
For those that are wondering how the average price of a house in Guelph is faring, it’s safe to say that we are currently at pricing that was last seen in 2021. Meaning, if you bought a house anywhere from Fall 2021- December 2025, you’d probably be listing it now, for less.
The average price of a house in Guelph in June 2026 is $803,000. This is made up of an average price of $581,000 for condos/ townhouses (37 sales) and $878,000 in detached homes (111 sales).
What sold in the Guelph real estate market in June 2026?
In June 2026, there were 148 houses that sold. These sales were made up of :
Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:
Of the 37 units that sold:
$282,300 was the low price (Dovercliffe neighbourhood)
$1,298,000 was the high price (Victoria North neighbourhood)
In May, we mentioned a big change in the condo segment, as it seemed to have come alive in both average price and sales.
- Average price has been in the low-mid $500,000’s for 6-8 months. May finished at $575K
- Sales per day: average 1- 1.3/ day for months. So far in May it’s over 1.7 per day.
In June, the average price continued to rise to $581,000, but the sales/ day retreated back to the range seen previously, ending at 1.2 sales/day
Total homes sold at an average of 98% of the ORIGINAL asking. This is a change recommended by a reader and implemented in our internal system.
7 of the 37 units sold over asking (19%)
3 sold at the asking (8%)
27 sold under the asking (73%)
Is now a good time to buy or sell a condo in Guelph?
Well it appears the market thinks so. We continue to keep a close eye on this segment, in particular with the race to the exits of the condo market in Toronto. Guelph loosely follows Toronto trends and the market there has been very slow.
So, one of the metrics (average price) is bumping up against some of the highs we’ve seen for a while. However sales have fallen back to their typical range of 1- 1.3/day.
Detached/ semi detached freehold
Of the 111 units that sold:
$545,000 was the low price (downtown Guelph semi)
$2,715,000 was the high price (Kortright East)
As mentioned earlier, the overall detached average was $878,000, the higher end point of what we’ve seen over the past year (between $800- $900K mark). However, this is propped up by the sale at $2.715M, a high mark for Guelph homes (without it, the average drops to $861K)
Total homes sold at an average of 97.2% of the last listed asking price- nothing notable.
20 of the 111 sold over asking (18%)
3 sold at the asking (3%)
88 sold under the asking (79%)
Is now a good time to buy or sell a detached home in Guelph?
The demand for detached homes will always be greater than the condo segment. On average, 3 detached homes sell per day in Guelph. We’re noticing that although inventory is rising, there are buyers there to buy it.
Consider this: In the eyes of a first time buyer, what’s a better financial decision: a detached home that doesn’t have monthly fees for $700K, or a $600K condo with $500/month fees? Of course, there is no right or wrong answer here, it depends on what is important to you. However, these are the decisions a buyer is considering in todays market.
Is Guelph real estate inventory rising or falling overall?
There are currently 615 houses on the market in Guelph, up 3.5% in two weeks. However, all of that is in the detached segment, whereas the condo/ town segment has actually flatlined in active listings.
320 detached (a 5% increase in June)
295 condo/ towns (flat over a 4 week period)
This is extremely noteworthy because it’s a big change from what we’ve been talking about for months: stagnant detached and rising condo/ towns. We’re experiencing the opposite at the moment.
What type of market is the Guelph real estate market in?
Guelph is currently in a balanced market trending towards a buyers market. The type of market we are in, is calculated on the trending months of inventory (MOI).
With 615 houses on the market and the last 3 months avg sales (150/mth), we have 4.1 months of inventory (MOI) which is putting us firmly in balanced real estate market territory.
However, we anticipate we will be inching closer to 6 MOI as the year moves on. This prediction is based on current lower volume sales trends along with increasing inventory with a spring market. Rising inventory = lower prices which buyers can benefit from.
Types of markets
Less than 2 MOI: sellers market. This means that prices will likely RISE because there is more demand (buyers buying) than supply (sellers selling)
2- 6 MOI: balanced market. This means there is enough inventory to satisfy needs of buyers and sellers and regular/ standard negotiations happen. We are currently here
6+ MOI: buyers market. This means there is more supply (houses for sale) than the demand for them (buyers to buy them). In this case, prices typically DECLINE because buyers can negotiate more
Year to date performance (Jan 1- June 30 2026) vs the same period 2025
We only update this monthly and we now have 6 full months of finalized data. Here is how the Guelph real estate market stacks up this year vs last:
Number of houses sold: -13% (751 in 2026 vs 866 in 2025, 115 less houses)
$ volume sold: -17% ($577M in 2026 vs $695M in 2025)
Average price: -4% ($768K in 2026 vs $802K in 2025)
Want more info?
If you’re thinking of buying or selling, working with award winning Guelph real estate agents can make navigating this market much easier! Check out our other market update formats include video and podcast: