Note: this is a bi-weekly post that updates on the sales within the Guelph real estate market. You can find a video version on our YouTube Channel here or listen to our Podcast version on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. If you like this information, give us a subscribe!
Guelph real estate sales for November 2025
We’re now into the tail end of 2025 and starting to see the slowdown that always starts this time of year. But, before we get into November results, let’s re-cap what we’ve been dealing with in Guelph in 2025.Here’s how many units sold by month so far this year vs 2024:
March: unit sales (the number of houses sold) were -17% vs 2024
April unit sales were -11% vs 2024
May unit sales were -7% vs 2024
June unit sales were -3% vs 2024
July unit sales were +11% vs 2024
August 2025 unit sales were -7% vs 2024
Sept 2025 unit sales flat vs 2024
Oct 2025: unit sales +6% vs 2024
November 2025: unit sales -22% vs 2024
In fairness to November 2025, it was compared to a strong 2024. If we compare it to 2022 or 2023, November 2025 was actually +22%. Although it feels like the market is really grinding, there are buyers and sellers coming together.
What type of market is the Guelph real estate market in?
Guelph is currently in a weak balanced market, trending to a buyers market. We are definitely not in a sellers market.
What is a balanced market?
A balanced market means that there is enough inventory to meet current demand. Neither buyers or sellers have the upper hand and typical real estate negotiations occur.
How do you calculate this?
As of December 5, there are a total of 452 houses on the market in Guelph. This is made up of 238 (252) properties in the condo/ townhouse segment and 214 (53)/ properties in the detached/ semi-detached segment. This is a net decrease of 53 properties in the Guelph market since November 15. We anticipated that this number would decline as we move into late November and December. As well, it should decline further into the end of the new year and close at roughly 400 active listings by year end. For context, this is about an 800% increase in available inventory from Jan 2022.
At this point in the year, many sellers decide it’s too late to list, or, that they don’t want to allow showings during the holidays. So, naturally volume drops off. The big concern here is that if many people do this (which is feels like it may be the case), there is going to be a glut of inventory in the spring.
It’s also worth noting that the # of condo listing terminations in the past few weeks is less than the detached segment. This could be that these sellers are more motivated to sell and can keep their properties on the market longer.
Based on the last 3 months sales trend of 139 houses selling per month, Guelph would have 3.25 months of inventory (452 houses for sale/ 139 sales per month) before we completely sell out of houses. Based on a standard formula known as months of inventory (MOI) the calculation works as follows:
Less than 2 MOI: sellers market
2- 6 MOI: balanced market
6+ MOI: buyers market
Let’s take a look at the Oct data:
November 2025 vs prior November months
On average in Guelph, sales average about 5 per day over the full year. The months of March-June generally are higher than 5, while all other months are lower. September is statistically a solid month. In some years, it ranks up there with spring months. After this, volume tends to start the slow decline in sales for the remainder of the calendar year. Here are previous Sept sales numbers:
Nov 2020: 6.5
Nov 2021: 6.1
Nov 2022: 3.5
Nov 2023: 3.4
Nov 2024: 5.3
Nov 2025: 4.0
These low unit sales numbers for November are expected, and we anticipate December to be even slower. No surprise there- however, the average price is really what we’re watching.
Like we realized in September and October, the average price took a dip. By mid November, the price seemed to be sliding even further. However due to the small sample size (# of sales), we need a few months of these lower prices before it becomes a trend.
What sold in the Guelph real estate market Nov 2025?
- 32 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
- 93 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or “freehold”)
Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:
Of the 32 units that sold:
$330,000 was the low price (Dovercliffe condo)
$1,490,000 was the high price (Manor Park condo)
Overall average was just over $578,000- a significant move closer to the $600,000 average that we’ve seen through most of the year. It’s worth noting that without that one sale at $1,490,000 the average price was actually $548,000. The average price continues to be soft in this segment in November and and we anticipate this will continue into December and Q1 2026.
Total homes sold at an average of 97% of the last posted asking. This is on par with prior months.
0 of the 32 units sold over asking (0%)
6 sold at the asking (19%)
26 sold under the asking (81%)
A glut in supply of the condo/ townhouse segment
The above sales are consistent with our predictions for this segment, in particular the stacked townhouse segment that is strugging with oversupply. The supply has been increasing and should increase over the next 6-8 months.
In July, we noted 237 units for sale with an average of 1.6 selling per day. Now, in early December despite cancellations we actually have more units for sale (238) than July and are selling less per day (1.0).
As inventory increases in this segment, we are noticing price declines across the board. Part of the reason for this is that some sellers are deciding to simply capitulate and accept what the market will offer. As a result, this newer low then becomes the new comparable for remaining and future sales. Frustrated sellers are perhaps instead renting their properties, or even leaving them vacant until what they believe is an improved market.
If you’re a buyer in this segment, you have more power than you’ve had in years to negotiate. However, sellers still have expectations on sale prices vs recent comparables.
Detached/ semi detached freehold
Of the 93 units that sold:
$530,000 was the low price (The Ward)
$1,550,000 was the high price (Clairfields)
Overall average was $794,000 (first time this has been below $800K in a long time)
Total homes sold at an average of 97.5% of the last listed asking price- no change
8 of the 93 sold over asking (9%)
5 sold at the asking (5%)
80 sold under the asking (86%)
The average price is quite low versus previous months in this segment.
Of the 8 homes that sold over the asking, in all cases these were homes intentionally priced below market value and not an indication of market demand. This generated multiple offers and although the home technically sold “over asking”, it eventually just sold at market value. This is just a marketing strategy that in our opinion is risky in todays environment.
We have noticed a jump in cancelled listings in this segment (10%) as sellers decide that they will wait until the spring to sell. In years past, this often meant an increase in sales price as well. However, as per our 2026 Guelph real estate predictions, this could also be a risky move.
Higher end segment flattening out
A new trend that we noticed in June of homes over $1M gaining steam appears to be starting to flatten. Homes in this price range historically represent 15-20% of total sales. For much of the spring and summer, this number was above or close to the high end of the range (20%). However, into fall it appears this number is starting to soften and although we were still within the range for October (17%), November was lower than we’ve seen in a long time (7%).
“Move up buyers”, those selling their first home to upsize to their next home have been a key contributor to this segment. And, it appears they’ve pumped the brakes for now. These move up buyers are typically selling between $750-$900K (a faster moving market) and buying in the $1M+ segment (now slower moving) to take advantage of the strength of one segment and the weakness of another.
Downtown area detached and semi-detached still remain strong, as there are some smaller homes that make for great first time buyers, downsizers or investor options. There are many detached homes now selling under $750K in Guelph.
How is Guelph real estate performing overall in 2025?
Overall, here are the main headlines for year to date to Nov 30 2025 versus same period 2024:
Sale volume (total $ of all the homes sold): -6.0% vs 2024
Total units sold (# of actual houses sold): -5.3% vs 2024
Total average price: -0.9%vs 2024
What are these numbers telling us?
With sales volume and total units down more than 5% vs 2024, it means that there is general hesitation in the market. Less homes are selling (90 less in 2025 vs 2024) and they are selling for slightly less as well. This is consistent with a changing real estate landscape and although it may be in decline vs 2024, it’s more in line with sales volumes prior to 2020.
The average price is less than 1% change vs 2024, which was also a decline from 2022-2023. However, if you go back to 2020 or 2021, the average price in Guelph is still significantly higher now than in those years. This is likely do to a boom in sales from the GTA during the pandemic with many higher priced homes being built in South Guelph. Add these homes into the mix and the average increases.
Buyers are testing the waters to see if there are deals
Buyers contribute just as much to the transaction as sellers do. With the creation of Housesigma, many buyers utilize the “estimated value” feature as a guide to how much they’ll offer on a house. This is most often a failed strategy, as Housesigma uses an algorithm to apply market stats to all homes. It doesn’t consider condition, smell, competitive listings, location of the house on a street, traffic noise, renovations and so much more. If you’re using it as a guide to an offer price: please don’t.
Sellers appear to be accepting the market pricing better than 2024
The other half of the equation and transaction is a seller of a home. Historically, a seller has had the upper hand in Guelph, with the ability to negotiate harder with buyers. Not so much anymore, as there are ample homes for sale that buyers can choose from.
Price reductions are common in this market, which is an indication of either a seller or real estate agent (or both) pricing a home too high for the given market. Then, they bring the price down to a level that engages buyers and generates an offer. This is common, as the seller tries to determine where the buyers are actually pricing the home (this is often measured by # of showings)
With the average sale price steady at roughly 97-98% of the last asking price in Guelph, it’s an indication that we’re getting tighter- more accurate- on pricing. However, we do still have situations where sellers want to “test the market” with a price that is circa 2022. We always encourage them to use recent comparables and have a plan B in the event that the market doesn’t react they way they want. After all, the market will decide the value.
Flexibility required
The challenge is that often today one side is not offering the flexibility needed to make a transaction happen. And so, they aren’t happening. All too often, someone is standing firm on a buying price or a selling price that is preventing a market from being just that- a market. Sometimes it’s budget or financial constraints, but all too often it’s ego.
Sellers don’t want to accept a changing market and buyers feel like the news headlines signal a crisis.
Market performance year to date by neighbourhood
It’s worth taking a look at how each neighbourhood performs, both on a unit (# of houses sold) and average price (average of all the homes sold) basis.
Overall in 2025 in the Guelph real estate market from Jan 1- Sept 30, 2025
# of houses sold in Guelph in 2025:
In 2025, there has been 68 less units sold than the same period in 2024 (-5%). But some neighbourhoods have performed better than others. Lets look closer:
Average price of houses sold in Guelph in 2025:
In 2025, the average price overall is almost identical to 2024 year to date. However, it’s worth looking a little deeper as there have been some big shifts:
Have questions on the Guelph real estate market?
As always, you can get in touch with Beth and Ryan Waller to book an appointment, have a chat or get a valuation of your home.