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Guelph real estate sales for Jan 1-15, 2026
December is always known as a slow month. And so is January. But, not this slow..
The end of a year is always known to be a time when sellers cancel their listings, or listing agreements expire. And in most cases, it means that they’ll be back when the new year starts. However, it seems that neither buyers OR sellers have returned with any urgency into 2026.
Let’s re-cap the number of homes on average that have sold per day in prior Januarys in Guelph real estate:
Jan 2020: 4.5
Jan 2021: 4.5
Jan 2022: 4.8
Jan 2023: 3.2
Jan 2024: 3.1
Jan 2025: 3.3
Jan 1-15, 2026: 1.1
Yes- 1.1. That’s the lowest single month (of any month we’ve ever tracked..)
Is Guelph real estate inventory rising or falling overall?
Inventory was rising steadily into December, then started to decline which is typical. As mentioned, we were more interested in seeing at how fast this would happen. At the end of November, we anticipated overall inventory would fall to roughly 400 by Dec 31- it was much further at 347.
Now in January, inventory still hasn’t recovered from the cancellations in December:
Beginning of December: 437 houses for sale
End of year: 347 houses for sale
Mid January 2026: 376 houses for sale (175 detached and 201 condo)
What sold in the Guelph real estate market Jan 1-15, 2026?
- 8 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
- 9 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or “freehold”)
Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:
Of the 8 units that sold:
$385,000 was the low price (539 Willow Rd)
$875,000 was the high price (Village by the Arboretum)
Overall average was just over $535,000- only a slight improvement vs Dec and a significant drop from prior months where we averaged close to/ over $600,000. We’ve been talking about this for months- and anticipate the average price of a condo in Guelph is going even lower. Keep in mind that the sample size in January is so small, it may not be a true reflection of reality. We’ll be watching.
Total homes sold at an average of 94.9% of the last posted asking. This is on par with prior months.
1 of the 25 units sold over asking (13%)
0 of the 25 sold at the asking (0%)
7 sold under the asking (87%)
A glut in supply of the condo/ townhouse segment
The above sales are consistent with our predictions for this segment, in particular the stacked townhouse segment that is strugging with oversupply. The supply has been increasing and should increase over the next 6-8 months.
In July, we noted 237 units for sale with an average of 1.6 selling per day. Now, 6 months later in January despite significant cancellations we actually have just a net decrease of 36 listings from July and are selling less than 1 per day (January is 0.6/day)
We recently posted a YouTube short on our channel (give us a subscribe!) where Ryan indicated that 44% of available condo listings were vacant- as in, no one lives there but someone is paying the mortgage, condo fees, utilities and taxes.
With all the cancellations late year, we’re now at 42%. This is the type of insight we’re looking for. Meaning, with all of the year end cancellations, it wasn’t the vacant property owners that were cancelling: it was the owner occupied units that cancelled.
Sellers of vacant properties seem to believe that they’ll either find a tenant, or get a better price in the future. The thinking is that the carrying costs (monthly costs) are less than what they can sell for in the future vs now. An example:
Monthly costs are $2000 and if they just paid this out of pocket for a full year ($24,000), it’s still less than what they think they could sell for in the future vs now.
With all the expenses of selling and the average price of a condo in Guelph at $522,000, owners would have to see property values increase about 10% for this math to work- personally, I can’t see this happening. Until these owners accept the current market or rent the property, these properties will sit vacant and collect dust.
Detached/ semi detached freehold
Of the 9 units that sold:
$590,000 was the low price (General Hospital)
$1,140,000 was the high price (Pineridge)
Overall average was $757,000 (multi- month low)
Total homes sold at an average of 96.9% of the last listed asking price- no change
0 of the 9 sold over asking (0%)
0 sold at the asking (0%)
9 sold under the asking (100%)
Higher end segment flattening out
A new trend that we noticed in June of homes over $1M gaining steam appears to be starting to flatten. Homes in this price range historically represent 15-20% of total sales. For much of the spring and summer, this number was above or close to the high end of the range (20%). However, into fall it appears this number is starting to soften and although we were still within the range for October (17%), November was lower than we’ve seen in a long time (7%) and December finished at 13%. January: 6%
What type of market is the Guelph real estate market in?
Guelph is currently in a balanced market. The type of market we are in, is calculated on the trending months of inventory (MOI).
With 376 houses on the market and the last 3 months avg sales (118/mth), we have 3.1 months of inventory (MOI)
Types of markets
Less than 2 MOI: sellers market. This means that prices will likely RISE because there is more demand (buyers buying) than supply (sellers selling)
2- 6 MOI: balanced market. This means there is enough inventory to satisfy needs of buyers and sellers and regular/ standard negotiations happen
6+ MOI: buyers market. This means there is more supply (houses for sale) than the demand for them (buyers to buy them). In this case, prices typically DECLINE because buyers can negotiate more.
Have questions on the Guelph real estate market?
As always, you can get in touch with Beth and Ryan Waller to book an appointment, have a chat or get a valuation of your home.