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Guelph real estate sale summary for February 2026
Interesting. Probably how we’d explain the Guelph real estate sales for the full month of February. In fact, “interesting” was also what we said about January. Some “interesting” that was good, some that was bad depending on whether you’re buying or selling in Guelph.
Not completely surprising though. When we updated mid Feb, it was clear that although it was a new month, it was the same pattern as January: less sales, sluggish activity.
As the seasonality goes, as we move further into the year the sales slowly creep up and tend to hit their peak in May or June before the slow creep back down into December that starts in July. And, although this is a summary of February, we’ll also touch on March.
Let’s start off with a re-cap the number of homes on average that have sold per day in prior Februarys in Guelph real estate in order to get a baseline:
2020: 7.3
2021: 8.8
2022: 8.8
2023: 4.9
2024: 5.1
2025: 4.3
2026 : 3.8
That’s the lowest February we’ve seen in YEARS.
It’s now the 2nd consecutive month of multi-year low volumes for a given month. How long will this continue and why is it happening? One theory is the extremely cold and long winter just has buyers sidelined, but personally we think that’s only one of about 5 factors. We’ll get into a few of them here, but be sure to watch Ryan’s video or podcast for more detail.
What was the average price of a house in Guelph in February 2026?
The overall average price of a house in Guelph in February 2026 was just under $717,000. This consists of an average price of $542,000 for condos/ townhouses (36 sales) and $808,000 in detached homes (69 sales).
This is just more than 9% lower than the average price in Feb 2025. It’s also the lowest average price of a house we’ve seen in a February in Guelph since 2020.
Is Guelph real estate inventory rising or falling overall?
Inventory was rising steadily into December, then started to decline which is typical. What we expected to happen is that much of the cancellations would return in January- but that didn’t happen.
Now in February, inventory still hasn’t recovered from the cancellations in December. Let’s review:
Dec 1, 2025: 437 houses for sale
Dec 31, 2025: 347 houses for sale
Jan 15, 2026: 376 houses for sale (175 detached and 201 condo)
Jan 31, 2026: 381 houses for sale (182 detached and 199 condo)
Feb 15, 2026: 403 houses for sale (180 detached and 223 condo)
Mar 2, 2026: 416 houses for sale (198 detached and 218 condo)
Let’s look at this for a second: now in March, we’re still at 5% LESS inventory than Dec 1, 2025.
And so this is our first clue: buyers aren’t buying because they have seen their options and are still waiting for something they want to buy. Until then, they are inactive.
Let’s look at what sold:
What sold in the Guelph real estate market February 2026?
- 36 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
- 69 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or “freehold”)
- 105 total residential properties
Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:
Of the 36 units that sold:
$312,000 was the low price (Onward Willow condo)
$835,000 was the high price (downtown condo)
As mentioned, the overall average was $542,000- a move into the middle of the trend for the past 6 months. That being said, at this point we still anticipate the average price of a condo in Guelph will go lower in 2026.
Total homes sold at an average of 96.4% of the last posted asking, which is a break below the 97% we’ve been trending towards. This would imply that there is more negotation happening that we’ve seen previously.
2 of the 36 units sold over asking (5.5%)
2 of the 36 sold at the asking (5.5%)
32 sold under the asking (88%)
A change in the condo/ townhouse segment?
We continue to keep a close eye on this segment, in particular with the race to the exits of the condo market in Toronto. Guelph loosely follows Toronto trends and the market there is deader than dead.
It’s possible we’re seeing a slight change in the condo market in Guelph, as the full month of February marks a change in the trends with a higher average price. It also had a higher sales velocity pattern than we’ve seen in prior months- selling 1.3 per day (it’s been less than one/ day for months). It’s also possible it’s just a moment in time that could change in March.
Additionally, we watch for vacant listings in this segment to get an idea of what owners are thinking. We currently have 40% of available condo listings vacant- as in, no one lives there but someone is paying the mortgage, condo fees, utilities and taxes. The thinking is that the carrying costs (monthly costs) are less than what they can sell for in the future vs now. This number is also down about 5-10% of what we’ve been seeing in this segment.
Detached/ semi detached freehold
Of the 69 units that sold:
$345,000 was the low price (this was a vacant lot in the Ward)
$1,400,000 was the high price (Old University)
As mentioned earlier, the overall average was $808,000 (on trend with prior months)
Total homes sold at an average of 98.4% of the last listed asking price- which is slightly higher than we’ve seen previously.
16 of the 69 sold over asking (23%)
8 sold at the asking (11.5%)
45 sold under the asking (65.5%)
Of the 16 listings that sold over asking, 14 were detached homes that were less than the average price of $808,000. Meaning, homes in this price range are starting to heat up, as there has been limited new inventory.
$1M plus segment
We watch this segment for an indication on trends. Historically, we see 15-20% of sales in the $1M+ price segment, but in the last few months this segment has been struggling. October ended at 17%, November at 7% and December 13%. January was back in the range at 16%.
February finished at 10.5% with sales in all parts of Guelph- east, west, south and downtown. In our opinion, we’re beginning to see this historical 15-20% move into the range of 10-15%.
What type of market is the Guelph real estate market in?
Guelph is currently in a balanced market. The type of market we are in, is calculated on the trending months of inventory (MOI).
With 418 houses on the market and the last 3 months avg sales (88/mth), we have 4.7 months of inventory (MOI). This is rising and puts us right in the middle of a buyers market- meaning it is an ideal market for negotiations and the “regular trading” of real estate.
In summary here: buyers are starting to outnumber sellers and MOI is increasing. As predicted early in the year, we would anticipate that in the next 8 weeks we will increase to 5 to 6 months inventory.
This prediction is based on current lower volume sales trends along with increasing inventory with a spring market. Rising inventory = lower prices.
Types of markets
Less than 2 MOI: sellers market. This means that prices will likely RISE because there is more demand (buyers buying) than supply (sellers selling)
2- 6 MOI: balanced market. This means there is enough inventory to satisfy needs of buyers and sellers and regular/ standard negotiations happen
6+ MOI: buyers market. This means there is more supply (houses for sale) than the demand for them (buyers to buy them). In this case, prices typically DECLINE because buyers can negotiate more
Year to date performance (Jan 1- Feb 28 2026 vs the same period 2025)
We only update this monthly, so we now have 2 full months of finalized data (January/ February). Here is how the real estate market stack up this year vs last:
Number of houses sold: -16% (180 in 2026 vs 215 in 2025)
$ volume sold: -23% ($131M in 2026 vs $169M in 2025)
Average price: -7.5% ($727K in 2026 vs $786K in 2025)
Looking to March 2026:
The key metric we’ll be watching in March is the sales velocity. March is the start of the spring market and typically is the first month to sell above average number of homes.
In March 2025, we sold 4.5 houses per day on average, or 140 homes. Will we exceed this and buck the current trend of selling less than 2025? We believe we may and it may be the start of a higher volume push as we outline in our 2026 Guelph real estate predictions.
We also believe we will improve on the average price for March, coming closer to our prediction of minus 1-3% for full year 2026 (vs -7.5% currently)