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Guelph real estate sale summary for Jan 2026
Well! January was an interesting month all around. Some interesting that was good, some that was bad depending on whether you’re buying or selling in Guelph.
The end of a year is always known to be a time when sellers cancel their listings, or listing agreements expire. And in most cases, it means that they’ll be back when the new year starts. However, it seems that neither buyers OR sellers returned with any urgency into January 2026.
The month started off extremely slow, with an average of just over 1 house selling per day. However, as mid month rolled around, buyers began to come out and gave the latter half of the month a much needed boost.
Let’s re-cap the number of homes on average that have sold per day in prior Januarys in Guelph real estate:
2020: 4.5
2021: 4.5
2022: 4.8
2023: 3.2
2024: 3.1
2025: 3.3
Jan 2026: 2.4
Yes- 2.4 sales per day. That’s the lowest January we’ve seen in YEARS and puts us very close to the slowest single month in years (Dec 2022 was also at 2.4 and Dec 2023 was 2.1)
What was the average price of a house in Guelph in January 2026?
The overall average price of a house in Guelph in January 2026 was $744,069. This consists of an average price of $569,900 for condos/ townhouses (28 sales) and $858,000 in detached homes (45 sales)
Is Guelph real estate inventory rising or falling overall?
Inventory was rising steadily into December, then started to decline which is typical. What we expected to happen is that much of the cancellations would return in January- but that didn’t happen.
Now in February, inventory still hasn’t recovered from the cancellations in December:
Beginning of December: 437 houses for sale
End of year: 347 houses for sale
Mid January 2026: 376 houses for sale (175 detached and 201 condo)
February 2026: 381 houses for sale (182 detached and 199 condo)
Meaning, in the past two weeks we have a net increase of only 5 new houses hit the market on top of one of the slowest sales months in years. Lower sales and limited new inventory means that we are starting to see a bit of demand for specific areas as the ready and qualified buyers are getting frustrated with no new options.
What sold in the Guelph real estate market January 2026?
- 28 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
- 45 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or “freehold”)
Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:
Of the 28 units that sold:
$312,000 was the low price (281 Bristol St)
$950,000 was the high price (Clairfields, south Guelph)
As mentioned, the overall average was just over $569,000- an improvement over what we have been seeing in the low 500’s and moving closer to what we saw in spring 2025 near the $600,000 mark. This is encouraging for sellers as we anticipate the average price of a condo in Guelph will go lower.
Total homes sold at an average of 97.5% of the last posted asking. This is on par with prior months.
3 of the 28 units sold over asking (11%)
3 of the 28 sold at the asking (11%)
22 sold under the asking (78%)
A glut in supply of the condo/ townhouse segment
We continue to keep a close eye on this segment, in particular with the race to the exits of the condo market in Toronto. Guelph loosely follows Toronto trends and the market there is deader than dead.
In July, we noted 237 units for sale with an average of 1.6 selling per day. Now, in February despite significant cancellations we actually have just a net decrease of 38 listings from July and are selling less than 1 per day (January was 0.9/day)
Additionally, we watch for vacant listings in this segment to get an idea of what owners are thinking. We currently have 42% of available condo listings vacant- as in, no one lives there but someone is paying the mortgage, condo fees, utilities and taxes. The thinking is that the carrying costs (monthly costs) are less than what they can sell for in the future vs now.
An example:
Monthly costs are $2000 and if they just paid this out of pocket for a full year ($24,000), it’s still less than what they think they could sell for in the future vs now. This would justify them not capitulating on price at the moment and holding firm, even if the listing looks stale and they are not getting showings.
With all the expenses of selling and the average price of a condo in Guelph now at $569,000, owners would have to see property values increase about 10% for this math to work- personally, I can’t see this happening. Until these owners accept the current market or rent the property, these properties will sit vacant and collect dust.
Detached/ semi detached freehold
Of the 45 units that sold:
$590,000 was the low price (General Hospital)
$1,365,000 was the high price (Kortright West)
As mentioned earlier, the overall average was $858,000 (this is a large increase vs prior months)
Total homes sold at an average of 98.1% of the last listed asking price- no change
7 of the 45 sold over asking (16%)
2 sold at the asking (4%)
36 sold under the asking (80%)
$1M plus segment
We watch this segment for an indication on trends. Historically, we see 15-20% of sales in the $1M+ price segment, but in the last few months this segment has been struggling. October ended at 17%, November at 7% and December 13%. January was back in the range at 16%.
It’s interesting to note that 2 of the 7 sales that sold over the asking in January were on $1M+ homes. Both of these sales were in the “Kortrights” (one Kortright East and one in Kortright Hills). If you aren’t familiar with these neighbourhoods, take a look at our Guelph neighbourhood map.
What type of market is the Guelph real estate market in?
Guelph is currently in a balanced market. The type of market we are in, is calculated on the trending months of inventory (MOI).
With 381 houses on the market and the last 3 months avg sales (92/mth), we have 4.1 months of inventory (MOI). This puts us right in the middle of a buyers market- meaning it is an ideal market for negotiations and the “regular trading” of real estate.
Types of markets
Less than 2 MOI: sellers market. This means that prices will likely RISE because there is more demand (buyers buying) than supply (sellers selling)
2- 6 MOI: balanced market. This means there is enough inventory to satisfy needs of buyers and sellers and regular/ standard negotiations happen
6+ MOI: buyers market. This means there is more supply (houses for sale) than the demand for them (buyers to buy them). In this case, prices typically DECLINE because buyers can negotiate more.
Year to date performance (Jan 1- 31 2026 vs the same period 2025)
It’s only one month of data, but here is how the key measures of the Guelph real estate market stack up this year vs last:
Number of houses sold: -25% (73 in 2026 vs 97 in 2025)
$ volume sold: -28% ($54M in 2026 vs $76M in 2025)
Average price: -4.5% ($744K in 2026 vs $779K in 2025)
Have questions on the Guelph real estate market?
As always, you can get in touch with Beth and Ryan Waller anytime! Visit their website to book an appointment, have a chat or get a valuation of your home.