Note: this is a bi-weekly post that updates on the sales within the Guelph real estate market. Subscribe to our YouTube Channel here or listen to our Podcast version on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
Guelph real estate sales for Sept 2025
The first half of 2025 wasn’t the market you’d expect. Starting with more snow, tariff talk, uncertainty and interest rate cuts made it a polarizing period. Either you were a buyer and it worked, or you were a seller and it worked. But, not everyone was pleased with the results in the Guelph real estate market. Then:
March: unit sales (the number of houses sold) were -17% vs 2024
April unit sales were -11% vs 2024
May unit sales were -7% vs 2024
June unit sales were -3% vs 2024
July unit sales were +11% vs 2024
August 2025 unit sales were -7% vs 2024
Sept 2025 unit sales are flat vs 2024
As you can see, with the exception of July, 2025 transactions are below 2024 in every month. It’s also worth noting that July 2024 was a slow month.
On September 17th, the Govt of Canada reduced the overnight lending rate by .25 BPS, bringing the rate to 2.5%. This is the first reduction since March and is welcomed by anyone with a variable rate mortgage or HELOC. Sellers hope this announcement helps spur the market, but it’s not as instantanious as this. Most buyers looking already had lenders taking this into account, meaning most buyers aren’t going to jump into a home because of a 25 basis point drop. For context, a 25 basis point drop on a $500,000 mortgage equates to roughly a savings of $100/mth
In todays market, we’re at a bit of a crossroads on both sides of the transaction. Buyers don’t feel rush to make a decision as they carefully consider a wide variety of options. Their offers often have conditions that can be as long as 60 days. Sellers are playing hardball on price and in many cases their houses sit stale as they wait for a buyer at their price.
What type of market is the Guelph real estate market in?
Guelph is currently in a weak balanced market, trending to a buyers market. We are definitely not in a sellers market.
What is a balanced market?
A balanced market means that there is enough inventory to meet current demand. Neither buyers or sellers have the upper hand and typical real estate negotiations occur.
How do you calculate this?
As of October 1, there are a total of 563 houses on the market in Guelph. This is made up of 245 properties in the condo/ townhouse segment and 318 properties in the detached/ semi-detached segment.
Based on the last 3 months sales trend of ~110 houses selling per month, Guelph would have 5.1 months of inventory (563 houses for sale/ 110 sales per month) before we completely sell out of houses. Based on a standard formula known as months of inventory, or MOI the calculation works as follows:
Less than 2 MOI: sellers market
2- 6 MOI: balanced market
6+ MOI: buyers market
Let’s take a look at the September data:
September 2025 vs prior September months
On average in Guelph, sales average about 5 per day over the full year. The months of March-June generally are higher than 5, while all other months are lower. September is statistically a solid month. In some years, it ranks up there with spring months. After this, volume tends to start the slow decline in sales for the remainder of the calendar year. Here are previous Sept sales numbers:
September 2020: 8.3 houses per day average
Sept 2021: 6.3
Sept 2022: 4.7
Sept 2023: 3.5
Sept 2024: 4.3
Sept 2025: 4.3
It is true that September is often called the “Second Spring Market”. The period of time between Labour Day and Thanksgiving realizes a seasonal bump up in activity. This is likely due to people getting back into a routine from summer holidays, as well as an urge to get settled into a new home by Christmas.
The most noticable element of September 2025 vs 2024 was that although the number of houses were flat, the average price took a noticeable dip. September 2024 average price was $812,000, while 2025 was $784,000 or -3.4%.
And to add to that, the average price of the detached segment is usually higher than the condo segment. In September, the condo segment only made up 21% of sales but an increase vs prior months. This means that the average price decreases are mainly coming from detached home sales.
What sold in the Guelph real estate market in September 2025?
- 27 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
- 103 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or “freehold”)
Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:
Of the 27 units that sold:
$325,000 was the low price (Onward Willow condo)
$1,050,000 was the high price (South Guelph condo x 2)
Overall average was just over $620,000- a move up from August but mainly propped by the two sales at $1,050,000.
Total homes sold at an average of 97.8% of the last posted asking- slightly higher than August
1 of the 27 units sold over asking (4%)
5 sold at the asking (19%)
21 sold under the asking (77%)
The average price over the past few months was hovering slightly below $600,000. In September, we did move back above $620,000 but note that the sales volume is very low. Average prices in this segment should be taken with a grain of salt as the sample size is small (27 sales).
A glut in supply of the condo/ townhouse segment
This is consistent with our predictions for this segment, in particular the stacked townhouse segment that is strugging with oversupply. The supply should increase over the next few months as warmer weather returns and many projects complete.
In July, we noted 237 units for sale with 1.6 selling per day. In August we had average of 1.3 sales per day with only 205 units for sale. Now, at the end of September we have an even higher number available, we have 245 units for sale with an average of 0.9 sales per day.
What does this mean? If the number of listings in September is the same as July but we’re selling less, it means that for every sale there has been more than one replacement listing. The sales trend is downwards and sellers are starting to cancel or de-list their properties instead of selling them at the current market value. Perhaps they are renting them, or even leaving them vacant until what they believe is an improved market.
If you’re a buyer in this segment, you have more power than you’ve had in years to negotiate. However, sellers still have expectations on sale prices vs recent comparables.
Detached/ semi detached freehold
Of the 103 units that sold:
$360,000 was the low price (a freehold home in the General Hospital area that required work)
$1,800,000 was the high price (Old University)
Overall average was $827,000 (trending downwards from July and August)
Total homes sold at an average of 97.7% of the last listed asking price
12 of the 103 sold over asking (12%)
10 sold at the asking (10%)
81 sold under the asking (78%)
Interestingly, the detached segment seems to be slightly weaker than the condo segment in September.
This could be that there is decreased demand from the market in this segment. Additionally, it could also mean that more sellers are coming to terms with the current market pricing and more willing to make a deal happen through capitulation.
Higher end segment seems to be stronger than recent past
Continuing on a new trend that we noticed in June, homes over $1M seem be gaining steam. 31% of the sales made in June were over $1M, July 21% for detached homes and August finished at 19.3%. This number historically moves in the range of 15-20% of total sales, meaning there is increased buyer demand here as of recent.
September did see a reversal, with only 15% of detached homes selling over $1 million. This is still within the historical range of 15-20%, but at the lower end.
Additionally, another trend we’ve noticed are “move up buyers”, those selling their first home to upsize to their next home. It’s a great time for this, because the house that they’re selling (likely between $750-$900K) is in a faster moving market than what they’re buying ($1M+). This mean means they can take advantage of selling at a reasonable price, as well as negotiating harder on the purchase.
The other possible incentive is that in Dec 2024, the Government of Canada reduced the downpayment for homes between $1M- 1.5M from 20% of the purchase price, to 10%. This is a significant change that could have an increased impact on homes in this range.
Downtown area detached and semi-detached still remain strong, as there are some smaller homes that make for great first time buyers, downsizers or investor options. There are many detached homes now selling under $750K in Guelph.
Why is transaction volume down in Guelph real estate?
Often times, there are complicated rationale for the way the market is going. From our perspective, if transaction volume is down, it’s just because buyers and sellers aren’t coming together. Why? What the sellers wants or is offering for their house is not what the buyers want. That’s it- we shouldn’t overcomplicate it. Because if they did agree, we’d have record high transaction volume. But they don’t.
Of course, this is a mass generalization. Sales happen all the time and often times buyers and sellers are happy with the outcome. But, not as much as we’d like in todays market.
Sellers don’t want to leave money on the table
We see two main types of sellers out there:
1/ those who bought between 2021-2023
2/ everyone else
If you bought between 2021 and 2023
If you’re in this boat, you’re likely selling because you need to. Perhaps your situation has changed in work, relationships, or financially. Real estate purchases are not meant to be short term and rarely end well after all the closing costs both buying and selling.
This group has to come to terms with the fact that they’re going to be out of pocket at the end. But, they’re doing their best to try and minimize that loss. This often results in listing at a higher price (in some cases, above what they paid in a hotter market) in an attempt to minimize loss.
The challenge here is two fold: 1/ the market isn’t as hot as it was then and there are more options for buyers. So, this means your house won’t sell at the same price as 2021-2023. And, 2/ buyers don’t care what you paid for your house, they’re looking at todays market. Harsh, but the truth.
If you bought anytime other than 2021- 2023
We met with our financial advisor a few months ago, who told us that sometimes he meets with clients that get upset with him. They get upset because he didn’t sell certain stocks in their portfolio when they were at all time highs. He tells them that it’s impossible to time the market and that unless there is some compelling reason to sell, he maintains the portfolio. Pyschologically, his clients just remember the peak value of their portfolio and in their mind, this is the true value. Real estate is the same.
Those who bought prior to 2020 tend to want to value their home at the peak of the market in 2022. In their minds, that’s the number. It makes sense, we’d do the same. They have a hard time accepting that in mid 2025, we’re back to home prices that we saw in 2021. The days of multiple offers, over asking and seller-control are gone.
Buyers are in control, because they have more choice. More choice= lower prices. If you won’t negotiate, another seller will.
Additionally, it takes longer to sell and you can expect conditions.
Buyers are testing the waters to see if there are deals
Buyers contribute just as much to the transaction as sellers do. With the creation of Housesigma, many buyers utilize the “estimated value” feature as a guide to how much they’ll offer on a house. This is most often a failed strategy, as Housesigma uses an algorithm to apply market stats to all homes. It doesn’t consider condition, smell, competitive listings, location of the house on a street, traffic noise, renovations and so much more. If you’re using it as a guide to an offer price: please don’t.
In recent months, we’ve seen a trend: a house lists and a buyer immediately shows up, offering 10% below the asking. Why? Because buyers read headlines too and they smell blood in the water and think that perhaps a seller needs to sell desperately, so why not? 99% of the time this doesn’t work, the seller gets upset and it goes nowhere.
But a smart seller won’t be offended- they’ll sign the offer back at what they want. Because, in negotiation you never know what the motivation of the other party is. Perhaps they’re looking for exactly your house and will pay full asking price. They’re just testing the water with the seller.
Buyers who have their ducks in a row will get a house in this market. They have more tools at their disposal and are more sophisticated than ever before. Sellers who think they’ll pull a fast one on buyers are less likely than ever before to achieve this.
Some buyers aren’t considering Guelph real estate at all
Of course, there is the other major factor here which is somewhat intangible: market uncertainty. Some buyers aren’t doing anything, they are just sitting on the sideline. Locked in lower interest rates, job insecurity, a new Canada and US government and so many other factors keep buyers at bay. They just don’t want to do anything until they get more information that validates that moving right now is a good idea.
Open houses in Guelph seem to be quiter than usual. With so many houses on the market, buyers are overwhelmed by choice and seem to be taking the process differently. As a result, they simply make appointments at the ones they are most serious about.
Flexibility required
The challenge is that often today one side is not offering the flexibility needed to make a transaction happen. And so, they aren’t happening. All too often, someone is standing firm on a buying price or a selling price that is preventing a market from being just that- a market. Sometimes it’s budget or financial constraints, but all too often it’s ego.
Sellers don’t want to accept a changing market and buyers feel like the news headlines signal a crisis.
Have questions on the Guelph real estate market?
As always, you can get in touch with Beth and Ryan Waller to book an appointment, have a chat or get a valuation of your home.